The 2008 US presidential elections: policies or personality?

An introduction was made by Marcus Oscarsson, The Times Scandinavian Correspondent, who gave a background information about the candidates. Dunham, who has covered every American presidential race since 1980, followed with a rundown of the three candidates strengths and weaknesses and outlined the major issues that will determine how Americans vote in November. In particular, he focused on the tough primary race between the two Democrats, saying that "the real winner of this Democratic fight thus far is John McCain."

While Obama and Clinton have been battling it out in the primaries, McCain has had the chance to step back a bit. "They are giving John McCain a chance to define himself on his own terms," Dunham says.

Since recent polls show that less than one-third of Americans currently approve of the Bush administration, he said, "the political climate is hostile to Republicans" and the Democrats should be well placed to take the presidency. Nevertheless, unlike European elections, American elections often come down to individuals rather than party lines.

Dunham said that recent polls show McCain as head-to-head with both Clinton and Obama. "It's about as close as it can be," he said.

He said the election results may very well come down to the charm factor, as was the case with Ronald Reagan. "Americans like to vote for a likeable person," he explained.

Dunham said we should be looking at race, gender and the generation gap as determining factors in how Americans will vote. Obama does especially well with younger voters at the same time that many are concerned with McCain's age (if he were elected, he would become the oldest president to assume office for a first term). Clinton is more popular among female voters, but she doesn't have the broad appeal shared by Obama and McCain. For example, Dunham said that McCain was popular among Democrats, but the opposite was not true for Clinton.

"John McCain needs to make sure he's not seen as old and outdated. For Obama, his personality and charisma work in his favor," Dunham said, adding that on the flip side, Obama might also be hurt by his inexperience.

Dunham explained that the major differences between the two Democrats come down to three issues: reform, healthcare and foreign policy. And for the election, the most important issues will be the economy, followed by security and the Iraq war.

So will it come down to personality or politics? "That is the question that will determine the presidency," Dunham said.

Written exclusively for AmCham by Charlotte West, Battison & Partners